Hormuz Discussions Delayed: What will be the Consequences on Oil Prices and Maritime Navigation after the Delay of the Meeting between Iran and Gulf States?
Arab Gulf states have delayed the negotiation process with Iran concerning the future of the Strait of Hormuz as rifts widen between Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members and Saudi Arabia becomes impatient with Iranian backing of Houthi rebels in Yemen. Gulf Iran Hormuz Negotiations, It is at this time that Houthi rebels attack Saudi Arabia using missiles and drones and move closer to the Red Sea coast of Yemen.
It was expected that the discussions would be held in Oman as part of the agreement for temporary use of the strait by commercial ships once it is open again.
The diplomatic snub comes at a crucial time for the world’s oil market, as Hormuz is effectively closed and a vital Saudi pipeline that would have helped Saudi Arabia circumvent the strait has been shut down due to a drone strike. As a result, the cost of oil continues to hover around $100 per barrel.
Why Saudi Arabia is against the Hormuz negotiations
More and more, the concerns of Saudi Arabia become related to what happens in Yemen. Houthi rebels have increased their presence on the Yemeni coast of the Red Sea and come closer to yet another crucial strait – Bab el-Mandeb.
Houthis have staged yet another assault against Saudi Arabia, when they launched missiles and drones on the city of Khamis Mushait, which resulted in 13 civilians being wounded. At the same time, Saudi Arabia and its allies continue conducting air strikes against Houthi militants.
For Saudi Arabia, negotiating with Iran while facing the territorial gains of the Houthis becomes a difficult situation to handle.
Second Threat Looms for Saudi Oil Exports
While the diplomatic row is developing, there are increasing threats to Saudi Arabia’s oil-export facilities.
The 1,200-kilometer East-West pipeline used for transporting oil to the Red Sea port of Yanbu as a potential replacement for Hormuz is still out of service following the drone strike. The facility has the capacity to move up to 4 million barrels per day, or roughly 4% of the world’s oil production.
Iraqi officials have said that the drones behind the recent attack took off from Iraqi territory, while Saudi Arabia has so far refrained from taking any military action against Baghdad and allowed its investigation.
Meanwhile, the pipeline disruption, the problems at Hormuz Strait and concerns in Bab el-Mandeb have raised the threat of more energy shocks.
Testing of US Support
In addition, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has also met with US Central Command head Admiral Brad Cooper in Jeddah as Saudi Arabia evaluates the deteriorating situation.
There were also reports that the Saudis are asking for more military help from America in the form of combating the Houthis. So far, the US has been helping with intelligence and targeting the group but not by engaging in combat.
However, as time passes and Houthi attacks continue to threaten Saudi cities and its energy facilities, this policy may prove to be crucial.
Why Hormuz Is Relevant Beyond the Gulf – Gulf Iran Hormuz Negotiations
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important energy bottleneck. Previously, about 125 ships per day used to sail through it. However, on Monday, Reuters reported that only four ships were sailing through it carrying cargo.
This issue is complicated by news coming out of Bab el-Mandeb. According to AP, the Houthis are extending their presence around the Red Sea bottleneck and have also captured Greater and Lesser Hanish islands.
Thus, the conflict has implications that go beyond Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen.
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