The Red Sea Shift: Why the Latest Houthi Offensive Threatens Regional Energy Security
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The Arab Post
- . September 14, 2026
- . Update: September 14, 2026 3:59 pm
For months, the world watched one narrow strait for signs of an energy crisis. Now there are two. Houthi forces effectively completed control of Yemen’s Red Sea coastline within 48 hours. Red Sea energy security, They captured the port city of Mokha on Thursday, then advanced onto Perim Island, also called Mayyun, at the mouth of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Friday.
The island sits at the strait’s narrowest point, splitting it into two shipping channels, and holding it lets the Houthis watch and threaten commercial traffic far more closely than missiles and drones alone ever allowed. About 12 per cent of the world’s traded goods pass through Bab el-Mandeb.
Why This Route Suddenly Matters More
This offensive did not happen in isolation. It comes seven months into an ongoing conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran that has already disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a passage that once carried roughly one-fifth of global oil exports before the fighting began in February. With Hormuz effectively compromised, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers leaned harder on Red Sea routes and pipelines as their fallback option.
That fallback route is now under direct threat too, raising the prospect of a second major shipping chokepoint crisis stacking on top of the first.
Strikes Are Already Hitting Infrastructure
The threat is not theoretical. Strikes inside Saudi Arabia forced the shutdown of a major oil pipeline on Friday, according to the country’s energy ministry. That follows a broader shift analysts have tracked since July, when the Houthis moved beyond targeting individual commercial vessels and began threatening ports, oil terminals, and energy export facilities directly.
The group formally declared an embargo on Saudi-linked shipping and maritime interests that same month, expanding its target list well past the vessels tied to Israel that it had focused on earlier in the war.
The Saudi Response, And Washington’s Hesitation
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has reportedly pressed President Trump directly for US military action against the Houthis as the offensive accelerated.
Washington has so far held back, wary of opening a new combat front while trying to keep its focus on Iran. That leaves Saudi Arabia facing an emboldened Houthi force largely on its own, with a pipeline shutdown suggesting the group’s threats are no longer just rhetorical.
What Experts Say Can And Can’t Happen
Even with Perim Island under their control, most analysts do not believe the Houthis have the capability to fully close Bab el-Mandeb.
What they can do, and have done for two years, is harass shipping with missiles, drones, and small boat attacks, tactics that have already pushed insurance premiums for Red Sea transits up sharply and driven more than 150 commercial ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope since late 2023. That detour adds high cost, sometimes over a million dollars per round trip in extra fuel alone, and adds roughly ten to twenty days to voyage times.
A Compounding Risk, Not Just A Regional One
What makes this moment different is timing, not just geography. Bab el-Mandeb was supposed to be the workaround for a Hormuz that Iran had already made unreliable. Now Iran’s own allies hold ground overlooking that workaround too.
Any sustained disruption to both corridors at once would hit oil markets, LNG shipments, which rely on the same Suez corridor for around 8 per cent of global seaborne volume, and Asia-Europe trade routes that depend on the Red Sea for roughly 40 per cent of their traffic.
What Comes Next – Red Sea energy security
For now, the Houthis have said maritime navigation remains open to companies not linked to Saudi Arabia, a distinction that offers little comfort to insurers or shippers trying to plan routes months in advance.
Whether this settles into another prolonged, low-grade threat to shipping, similar to the pattern seen since 2023, or escalates into an actual closure attempt, will likely determine how much further global energy security erodes in the weeks ahead. Either way, the buffer that Red Sea routes once offered against a Hormuz crisis no longer looks as secure as it did even a month ago.
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