Iran’s 3 Possible Paths in a Post-Assad Middle East
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RDA Gulf Correspondent - . December 19, 2024
- . Update: December 19, 2024 10:12 pm
Having dominated the Middle East for decades, Iran has reached a crossroads as the Assad regime finally collapses in Syria. Now that its sole regional state ally is defeated and its Hezbollah has been weakened through Israeli bombardments, it has had to review its strategy in the region which brings it three choices.
Doubling down on opposition
Iran could choose to rebuild its “Axis of Resistance,” focusing on allied groups like Shia militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen. This approach may involve escalating conflict with Israel and the United States but risks further isolating Iran and leading to devastating consequences for its allies. This stance aligns with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s vision of resistance as an enduring doctrine.
Prioritizing Domestic Defense
Alternatively, Iran may turn regional and focus on developing its national armed forces. It could, for example, focus on missiles and drones to change its present military posture to a posturing of defense. But in doing so, Iran’s prospects of being struck by the military, most definitely in its nuclear facilities, increase if it gets close enough to weaponizing its program.
Pursuing De-Escalation and Diplomacy
Regional and global tensions might create a window of opportunity for diplomatic maneuvering by Iran. The country could, with its strengthened relations with Saudi Arabia, de-escalate the conflict with Israel, and negotiate sanctions relief with the United States for regional stability and a lift from domestic economic pressures. President Masoud Pezeshkian has indicated that his regime will focus on the country’s economic revival and regional stability.
A Crossroads-Conservative Turn
The moves of Tehran will determine the future of the Middle East. In case of resistance, defense, or diplomacy, choices by Tehran will influence not only the stand of Iran but also broader security dynamics in the region. This moment might reflect historical breakthroughs, like the nuclear deal in 2015, offering a rare opportunity to end decades of chaos and disorder.
