Erdogan’s Shift at the 2024 UNGA: A New Tone on Kashmir
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Salma Hossein
- . September 27, 2024
- . Update: September 27, 2024 11:04 pm
Starting in 2019, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had regularly presented Kashmir’s issue before the UN General Assembly (UNGA) in his yearly speech. Once Article 370 was withdrawn under Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led administration, Erdogan made a point to underline the situation of events in the Indian-administered territory, therefore depriving Jammu and Kashmir of their special status. His remarks have evolved throughout time to be connected with aspirations for a resolution of the Kashmir conflict.
But in a surprising turn of events during the UNGA session in 2024, Erdogan defied convention and left out reference to Kashmir in his speech. Given his past speeches mostly pushing for a peaceful conclusion to the Kashmir conflict by means of negotiations between India and Pakistan, his silence on the matter has created curiosity and conjecture. Still a strong advocate of the Palestinian cause, Erdogan focused this year on the continuing crisis in Gaza and Syria.
Turkey’s Emphasizing Historical Perspective on Kashmir
Over the years, Erdogan’s emphasis on Kashmir has repeatedly come across in his UNGA remarks. In 2023 he advocated a “just and lasting peace” for Kashmir, therefore supporting Indian and Pakistani cooperation and communication. His statement reflected similar ideas from 2022, in which he expressed concern that “strong peace” between the two countries had not yet evolved even 75 years after their independence.
Emphasizing the need of addressing the Kashmir issue by means of UN resolutions, Erdogan underlined in 2021 a message he has maintained since 2019. He had rather strong opinions on the subject that year, declaring that “dialogue on the basis of justice and fairness” would help to resolve the Kashmir dispute. Outside the UN, Erdogan’s comments on Kashmir were somewhat more direct. Once accusing India of killing Muslims, New Delhi fiercely denied his allegation, pointing to internal issues as involvement in a policy problem.
An Evolution in UNGA 2024 Emphasizing Approach
The address delivered by Erdogan this year obviously strayed from his normal position in excluding Kashmir. Rather, concentrating on the conflicts in Syria and Gaza, the Turkish president targeted his criticism on Israel and Palestinian treatment. Maintaining his support of the Palestinian cause, Erdogan said of Palestinian land: “world’s largest cemetery.”
But why did Erdogan suddenly see India and Kashmir differently? Many elements could help to clarify this shift in language:
BRICS Factor: Turkey’s membership bid
Erdogan’s quiet on Kashmir could be mostly related to Turkey’s increasing necessity in joining the BRICS bloc, which comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Erdogan said in his statement at the 79th UNGA conference Turkey’s wish to improve ties with BRICS, a group of underdeveloped countries. Should Turkey become a member, it will be the first one entering NATO from the bloc.
On the other hand, BRICS adopts a consensus method, hence all the nations—including India—have to agree on new members. Erdogan might be shifting his position on Kashmir in order to raise Turkey’s prospects of getting India to back its BRICS membership proposal.
Turkey’s Pursues Complete SCO Membership
One such element affecting Erdogan’s stance could be Turkey’s goal of full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Now a spectator, Turkey is looking for a more important role inside the group incorporating India as a permanent member. Avoiding anti-Indian statements, Erdogan could be setting Turkey in position to win acceptance inside the SCO and acquire full membership.
Rising Indian Business and Travel to Turkey
With Indians ranking third among all Asian travelers behind China and Indonesia, Indian travel to Turkey has surged dramatically recently. Moreover, sprouting up more and more in Turkey are Indian companies. Given these economic links, Erdogan’s government should exercise caution in undermining relations with India by stressing the Kashmir issue abroad.
Building ties to friendly nations of India
Turkey has also been diplomatic in trying to mend relations with countries such Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, all of which are close to India. Improving Turkey’s relations to these nations most certainly means adjusting its attitude toward India, particularly lowering tensions over Kashmir.
Discontent with Pakistan
Turkey’s mounting dissatisfaction with Pakistan could be influencing how it sees Kashmir. Relations between Turkey and Pakistan have deteriorated as accounts of undocumented Pakistani immigrants generating social and criminal problems in Turkey have surfaced. These immigrants have been connected to drug trafficking, human and criminal activity, gang violence, and other offenses calling Ankara’s tight relations to Islamabad reevaluated under scrutiny.
Result of Erdogan’s Previous Remarks on Kashmir
Earlier comments on Kashmir by Erdogan damaged Turkey’s diplomatic standing. Following a UNGA address by Erdogan, Prime Minister Modi canceled an October 2019 visit to Turkey; a $2.3 billion naval agreement between India and a Turkish defense business was scrapped. India likewise cut its imports from Turkey and developed ties with Armenia, Turkey’s regional adversary.
Should Erdogan decide to exclude Kashmir from his UNGA speech in 2024, Turkey’s foreign policy might change. Erdogan seems to be changing his position on the Kashmir matter as Turkey tries to strengthen its ties with BRICS and the SCO and as strategic and financial interests with India develop. This shift mirrors Turkey’s larger attempts to manage relations with important foreign countries while raising its profile on the global scene.
