Turkey’s Bid to Join BRICS: A Shift from West to East?
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Hashim Sheikh - . October 22, 2024
- . Update: October 22, 2024 6:44 pm
Mostly to offset Soviet dominance during the Cold War, Turkey has been a significant NATO ally since the 1940s. Its close proximity to the USSR and concern for prospective territorial threats helped it to identify with the West, particularly with regard to the United States. But under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s geopolitical strategy has shifted drastically. Erdogan, who has been in power since 2003, has progressively shifted Turkey’s foreign policy from its traditional pro-Western posture toward a more autonomous presence on the world scene. Under this transformation, Turkey is developing new alliances including with countries once antagonistic to the US and Europe such China, Russia, and Iran.
In recent years, Erdogan has positioned Turkey as a nation free of any one bloc, seeking instead strategic alliances that forward its own national interests. This increasing autonomy has caused strife with long-standing Western allies most famously the US and the European Union (EU). Turkey’s most significant move in its evolving foreign policy is its attempt to become a member of the BRICS group, an alliance of rising-market nations presenting itself as a replacement for Western-dominated world institutions.
Turkey’s Seeking of BRICS Membership: An Appeal for Authority
Turkey’s desire to join BRICS indicates a significant departure from its typically Western attitude. Originally uniting Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, BRICS was first created as a coalition of major rising countries. Over time, it has become a place for countries trying to question Western financial institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in terms of impact on the world scene. Turkey finds the group more enticing when four more members—Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia, and Egypt—join BRICS in 2024 to diversify her ties.
Turkey’s turn toward BRICS results from dissatisfaction with the EU and Western powers. For decades Turkey has been attempting to join the European Union, only to be disappointed and constantly delayed. These difficulties, claims Erdogan’s government, point to the fact that Turkey’s future does not just lay with the West. Those familiar with Erdogan’s thinking claim Turkey’s government believes the global center of gravity is shifting from rich Western economies toward emerging countries like China and Russia. By joining the BRICS, Turkey hopes to raise its visibility in the world community, strengthen ties with significant members, and so increase its impact.
BRICS membership offers Turkey several-sided possible benefits. Apart from having access to the New Development Bank of BRICS, which offers Western financial institutions a substitute source of finance, Turkey may also improve its political and commercial ties with significant BRICS countries. When Erdogan gets ready to travel to the BRICS meeting in Kazan, Russia, in October 2024, Turkey’s quest for membership is expected to be a hot topic.
Turkey’s Increasing Allusiveness: Tensed Relations with the West
Turkey’s move toward BRICS is part of a bigger strategy meant to separate itself from Western countries from which its relations are souring in recent years. Turkey’s NATO membership historically reflected its close ties to the West, but since the early 2010s tensions have developed. 2013 was one of Turkey’s most important turning points in its relations with the West when Erdogan attacked Western countries financing anti-government rallies set off during the Arab Spring. Growing hostility of the West was heightened in 2014 when the US began assisting Kurdish troops battling the Islamic State ( ISIS). As Turkey has been battling Kurdish militants within its own borders for decades, this operation was seen as a direct threat.
Rising Kurdish insurgency activity, Turkey’s sense of betrayal became more acute in 2015 when the US and Germany withdrew air defense installations from Turkish territory. As part of its strategy to maintain security inside its borders, Erdogan’s government had been banking on these steps. Still further damage came from US pressure on Turkey to breach a contract with China purchasing a missile-defense system. Ankara has sought to diversify its defense alliances, but the US advised Turkey to abandon the deal citing concerns over China’s military connection with Iran.
Turkey’s relations with the West really started to deteriorate in 2016 after a failed coup attempt linked to Fethullah Gulen, a cleric living in exile in the US. Erdogan’s government was furious when the US turned down extradition of Gulen, which marked the start of his progressively hostile approach toward Washington. As Turkey inked a contract with Russia to acquire the S-400 missile defense system, 2019 saw hitherto unheard-of levels of conflict. Concerned that Russian technology may be utilized for intelligence collecting on NATO aircraft, the US responded by banning Turkey from its F-35 fighter jet program. US sanctions followed, badly souring relations between the two NATO members.
Beyond defense issues, Erdogan’s growing criticism of Israel and support of Hamas, a group considered a terrorist organization by the US and the EU, have deepened the divide separating Turkey and the West. Erdogan has protested Israel’s military activities in Gaza and questioned US support of the Israeli government going ahead. Especially as Turkey’s relationships to countries like Iran and Russia get closer, these remarks have caused strife.
Erdogan’s outreach to his new allies
As Turkey’s relations to the West have deteriorated, Erdogan has sought fresh partnerships in fields typically ignored by Turkish foreign policy. The various diplomatic offices Turkey has lately erected in Africa and Latin America reflect its aim to be more visible on the international scene. Also keen to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a China-led defense alliance including Russia and many Central Asian nations, Erdogan has Should this come through, Turkey will be the first NATO member to join the SCO, therefore isolating Ankara from its Western rivals.
Economically, Russia has been among Turkey’s most important friends. Russia supplied 42% of Turkey’s natural gas in 2023; Russian tourists flooded the country, therefore helping Turkey’s essential travel sector. Russia’s state-owned energy behemoth Rosatom is building a $24 billion nuclear power station on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast as negotiations for a second facility are already under progress. Turkey is seeking Chinese investment in the manufacture of electric vehicles and rare earth elements as well as negotiating with China to build a third nuclear power facility.
Turkey, NATO, and the West: stakes
Particularly the US and NATO, Turkey’s Western allies find significant challenge in Erdogan’s balancing act between East and West. While the crisis in Ukraine lasts, Western nations have tried to present a united face in pushing Russia to stop its military actions. However, Turkey’s developing ties to Russia hinder these projects. Signing his reluctance to fully support the West’s hard approach on Russia, Erdogan cautioned his fellow NATO members in July 2024 against engaging in actions that would aggravate the situation.
Although US officials have advised Turkish companies against violating American sanctions on Russia and Hamas, pushing Turkey too aggressively runs the risk of alienating a significant ally of NATO. Given its strategic location in the uncertain Middle East—especially in light of its role as a barrier against Middle Eastern refugees— Turkey is a vital friend to the West. Turkey is also quite crucial for NATO’s missile defense system and hosts US nuclear warheads, so Western military strategy depends entirely on Turkey.
Erdogan is also aware at the same time that any deeper cut in relations with NATO could jeopardize Turkey’s aspirations to upgrade its military equipment and acquire US-made F-16 fighter fighters. Though it is looking for other alliances, Turkey cannot afford to cut all ties with the West given its reliance on NATO for security.
All things considered, Erdogan’s calculated Gamble
Turkey’s attempt to join BRICS is a calculated move by Erdogan meant to alter his country’s foreign policy and present Turkey as an autonomous actor. Strengthening ties with developing countries and looking for strategic partnerships with China and Russia will help Erdogan ensure Turkey’s place in a changing world. Still, there are risks in juggling East and West. Erdogan wants to avoid a complete split with the West and maintain ties to NATO, hence his growing relationships with Russia and China could sour Turkey’s relations even more. Although Erdogan’s bold foreign policy moves have already positioned Turkey as a nation ready to chart its own path in a turbulent world, it remains to be seen whether Turkey’s turn toward BRICS would succeed in increasing its worldwide influence.
