Biden Unlikely to Impose Harsh Sanctions on Iran After Israel Attack
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Editor
- . April 16, 2024
- . Update: April 16, 2024 7:53 pm
In the wake of Iran’s missile and drone strike on Israel, the Biden administration faces a delicate balancing act, weighing the need to deter future attacks against the risk of escalating regional tensions and disrupting the global oil market. Analysts believe that Biden is unlikely to pursue dramatic sanctions on Iran’s oil exports, given the administration’s concerns over the potential impact on gasoline prices and the fragile US-China relationship.
Biden Unlikely to Impose Harsh Sanctions on Iran
Concerns over Oil Price Hikes and Friction with China Deter Harsh Sanctions on Iran
The Biden administration is wary of actions that could significantly disrupt the global oil supply and drive up prices at the pump, a crucial factor in an election year. Additionally, aggressive enforcement of sanctions could further strain the already tense US-China relationship, as China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, often disguising its origins to avoid detection. Destabilizing this critical economic relationship, which both countries have been working to repair, is a risk the administration appears unwilling to take.
Republican Pressure Faces Biden’s Reluctance to Escalate Regional Tensions
While House Republican leaders have accused the Biden administration of failing to enforce existing sanctions and vowed to introduce legislation to tighten restrictions on Iran, the administration is cautious about actions that could escalate the conflict in the region. Preventing the Gaza conflict from spiralling into a wider regional war is one of the administration’s stated goals, and it is reluctant to take steps that could undermine this objective.
Challenges in Effectively Enforcing Existing Sanctions on Iran’s Oil
Despite efforts by the Biden administration to crack down on sanctions evasion, Iran’s oil exports have rebounded to nearly pre-sanctions levels of around 2 million barrels per day. Experts note that oil-related sanctions have not been strictly enforced in recent years and that further tightening the restrictions could face significant practical and political obstacles.
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Balancing Deterrence and Diplomacy: Biden’s Cautious Approach to Iran
The Biden administration must navigate a delicate path, seeking to deter future 0 attacks by Iran without triggering a broader escalation of regional tensions. Analysts suggest that the administration may take limited actions, such as targeting specific Chinese or other entities involved in Iran’s oil trade, as a way to signal its resolve without risking a major confrontation.
Ultimately, Biden’s response will reflect the difficult tradeoffs his administration must weigh, balancing the need to hold Iran accountable for its actions, the potential impact on oil prices and the broader geopolitical landscape, and the desire to avoid a further deterioration of the already fragile regional security situation.
