Erdogan and Putin: The High-Stakes Power Play Shaping Global Conflicts and Economic Ties
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Hashim Sheikh
- . October 24, 2024
- . Update: October 24, 2024 2:55 pm
Influencing conflicts and economic exchanges in many spheres, the complex connection between Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin now defines current geopolitics. Driven by common interests and the need to assert freedom from U.S. control, both leaders—who have held power for decades—manage a wary respect for one another. Their rivalry and collaboration have shaped Eastern Europe’s military and economic landscapes as well as those of the Middle East and beyond.
From somewhat different political and cultural backgrounds, Erdogan and Putin have shown respect for one other’s perseverance and leadership. Often characterizing their relationship as based on “joint understanding, mutual trust, and respect,” Erdogan has claimed Putin has lately praised Erdogan as a “strong leader” and a “reliable friend.” Still, these compliments coexist with difficult moments, particularly in cases when the two countries’ geopolitical objectives overlap.
Turkey and Russia have stood differently in several significant conflicts. Russia, for example, sponsored the Assad government in Syria while Turkey backed opposition movements. These several objectives almost led to real combat in 2020 when a Russian attack in Idlib claimed 34 Turkish soldiers dead. Although it drew attention to the shortcomings of their partnership, a ceasefire agreement reached by both leaders helped to calm hostilities. Similarly in Libya and the South Caucasus, Turkey and Russia have supported competing parties, therefore souring their relations.
Around their goals of diminishing U.S. domination in respective territories despite these conflicts, their partnership has become more solid. Both leaders have implemented policies that assert their countries’ independence from Western powers, generally working on military and economic front lines, even if they retain variances in other domains.
Cooperation Under Conflict: Trade, Travel, and Energy
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Erdogan and Putin’s relationship has evolved to include deeper trade and energy cooperation. While Turkey has denounced Russia’s military engagement in Ukraine by supplying attack drones to Kyiv, it has stopped short of endorsing Western sanctions on Moscow. Especially in the energy sector, Turkey’s careful approach has helped it to maintain its economic ties with Russia as a whole.
Russia, Turkey’s main gas supplier, offered a lifeline to the Turkish economy when world energy prices surged following the invasion of Ukraine. Moscow allowed Ankara to postpone paying on up to $4 billion in gas purchases, therefore stabilizing Turkey’s foreign exchange reserves during an uncertain election year. Erdogan nearly won the 2023 election, and the postponed payments were seen as crucial for maintaining run-up economic stability prior to the vote.
Beyond gas, Russia and Turkey have engaged on large energy infrastructure projects including the Akkuyu nuclear power station Russia’s state nuclear energy organization Rosatom is building. Although the plant’s opening has been delayed, it is still the focal point of Turkish energy policy and cooperation on this project has enhanced economic links between the two countries.
Putin recently proposed the idea of a Russian “gas hub” in Turkey. Russia could use this gateway to reroute its energy exports while European countries reduce Russian gas imports in response to the conflict in Ukraine. Turkey’s extensive gas infrastructure makes it a main energy supply for countries like Bulgaria, Hungary, and Moldova, who inked separate deals with Ankara. For Turkey, this might boost its geopolitical influence and offer financial benefits as well.
Military Discounts and Western Opposition
2019 saw a sea change in Turkey’s ties with Russia and NATO as it acquired Russian S-400 missile defense systems. Particularly the United States, which said the Russian system created a security issue and was incompatible with NATO’s defensive architecture, the deal outraged Turkey’s NATO partners. In response, the US sanctions Turkey’s defense industry and ejects Ankara off the F-35 fighter jet program, a project Turkey both bought and produced.
Notwithstanding the repercussions, Erdogan is certain that Turkey’s military operations with Russia concern national sovereignty. Turkey argues that although the S-400 systems have not yet been put in service, they are ready for use should demand arise. This behavior emphasizes Erdogan’s preparedness to give Turkish-Russian relations top priority even if it would damage relations with Western allies.
Turkey’s decision to object to sanctions on Russia has further strained its relations to Western nations. While many countries have broken off trade with Russia, Turkey has kept doors open to Russian visitors, immigrants, even oligarchs seeking safe havens for their wealth. Turkish exports to Russia are expanding by 17% to $11 billion in 2023; bilateral trade between the two nations has reached historic highs; Russians are now the top foreign buyers of Turkish real estate.
Though Western nations have accused Turkey of exploiting back ways to allow Russia purchase war-related items, including semiconductors and processors, Turkey’s close economic links to Russia have not been without controversy either. European countries have promised greater action and punished certain Turkish businesses allegedly facilitating these ties. In light of these accusations, Ankara claims that no goods passing Turkey are being used for Russia’s military effort.
Turkish exporters have meanwhile found additional difficulties doing business with Russia. Under pressure from Western financial systems, Turkish banks have increased restrictions on Russian consumers, therefore complicating the payment processing for commodities moving between the two countries. Still working on collectively acceptable solutions to these financial issues are Moscow and Ankara.
Act of Diplomatic Balance
Keeping tight ties to Moscow and Kiev, Erdogan has positioned Turkey as a significant diplomatic actor amid the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Turkey has continued to promote itself as a mediator between the two nations for prospective future peace negotiations and planned talks for 2022. Apart from maintaining a dialogue with Putin, Erdogan has been able to preserve open lines with NATO countries and Ukraine by this cautious balancing effort.
Turkey’s principal focus in foreign diplomacy has also stemmed from Erdogan’s control over the straits isolating the Black Sea from world markets. Turkey helped to establish the Black Sea Grain Initiative in 2022, allowing Ukrainian grain exports to pass unhindered among hostilities. The United Nations co-broked this agreement, greatly praised for helping to alleviate world food shortages. But Putin withdrew Russia from the agreement in July 2023 citing concerns over the distribution of Ukrainian grain as well as problems with Russian food and fertilizer exports. Turkey is working to maintain the agreement in place, but the fall-off showed how little diplomatic clout Erdogan has over Putin.
Turkey’s Growing Bond to BRICS
Recent times have also seen Turkey’s increasing intent in joining BRICS, the bloc of developing economies encompassing Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Erdogan has also declared in recent times Attendees in 2023 included BRICS members Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates. Turkey joining BRICS could offer fresh chances for economic cooperation with Ankara as it seeks to extend its global alliances.
Clearly, though, Erdogan makes clear that BRICS participation cannot substitute Turkey’s ties to NATO or the West. Turkey sees membership as more of an opportunity to retain its affiliation with Western institutions while nevertheless improving its financial status. Though U.S. officials have expressed concerns about Turkey’s probable BRICS membership, Erdogan’s pragmatism has permitted him to manage these problems while improving ties to non-Western nations.
Strategic objectives that usually coincide but sometimes conflict describe the complex interaction between Erdogan and Putin—a combination of cooperation and antagonism. From military actions in Syria and Libya to energy cooperation allowing both nations to weather economic crises, together they have reshaped the world scene. The developing ties between Turkey and Russia will continue to be a major factor influencing world events, therefore impacting not only the Middle East and Eastern Europe but also the more general dynamics between East and West.
