Iran’s Strategy: From Ties to Saudi Arabia to Plotting Against Israel
This week, Iran is very proud of itself. While Iran is able to present itself as a member of the nations that are currently engaging in diplomacy rather than conflict, the clashes in Jenin have drawn criticism of Israel from the Persian Gulf and other states.
Iran thinks it is making strides in this regard on several fronts. It is working on new agreements with Russia, considers relations with Riyadh to be much warmer than they once were, and is pleased with recent diplomatic efforts between Syria and the Arab League.
Iran is also waging war on Kurdish organisations. Recent conflicts with the PJAK group show that the group is either expanding operations or, more likely, that Iran is attempting to clip the group’s wings by stepping up operations against PJAK. Iranian forces have previously attacked Kurdish dissidents in Iraq. At a time when tensions between Turkey and the PKK are rising, it might now want to put more pressure on PJAK.
Syria-related talks between Russia, Syria, and Turkey are scheduled to take place in Astana. Iran might be taking steps to cooperate with Turkey more closely.
Ahead of a crucial meeting, Iran tries to plan with Palestinian terrorist organisations.
However, the conflict in Jenin is not being over-hyped by Iranian media. Iran doesn’t seem to be claiming responsibility for the fighting either. However, this does not imply that Iran is not looking to collaborate or plan with Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Iran is meeting with PIJ and Hamas this week and is probably looking to take advantage of the circumstance. Al-Mayadeen, for example, emphasised the fact that an explosive was used in Jenin against an IDF vehicle. Due to its proximity to both Iran and Syria, this media tries to reflect Iran’s general perspective on the most recent clashes.
Iranian media is also talking about how protests started last year after Mahsa Amini was killed by the morality police of the Islamic Republic. Iran now believes that foreign intelligence agencies and foreign nations encouraged these protests, according to the report. This is the typical Iranian conspiracy theory. But it demonstrates that Iran now feels assured that the protests are finally over, more than six months after they began. Iran can now assess and learn, and the regime can strengthen its position.
When these various themes are connected, a pattern becomes apparent.
Iran feels that the Iran-Saudi agreement is unfair to Israel. It is also pleased to see that the Syrian government has rejoined the Arab League. Additionally, it thinks that by cooperating with Turkey and Russia, it has defeated the protests and can now attack PJAK.
Many things are now coming together for Iran. It probably also thinks China has an advantage over the US in relations. This might alter Iran’s perception of the possibility of a new agreement with the United States. Tehran probably thinks it doesn’t need a new agreement with DC because exports are increasing and it has a new hypersonic missile.