Are the US Retaliation Plans in the Middle East Going to Make Things Better or Worse?

• Roshan Amiri
• . February 5, 2024
• . Update: February 5, 2024 6:32 pm
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The US is in the midst of a series of retaliatory strikes against Iranian-backed militia groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, following a deadly drone attack on a US base in Jordan that killed three American soldiers and wounded more than 40 others. 

The US has blamed Iran for providing the drone and the weapons to the militants, and has vowed to hold them accountable and deter further attacks. The US has also accused Iran of destabilizing the region and undermining the efforts to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, which the US withdrew from in 2018 under former President Donald Trump.

Iran has denied any involvement in the drone attack, and has condemned the US strikes as illegal and aggressive. Iran has also warned the US of a harsh response and a possible escalation of the conflict, which could involve its allies and proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran has also reiterated its demands for the US to lift the sanctions imposed by the Trump administration, and to respect its rights and interests under the nuclear deal.

Analysis

The US retaliation plans in the Middle East are likely to have mixed and uncertain effects, depending on the perspective and situation of the actors involved. Some of the possible effects are:

Positive effects:

• The US strikes could deter Iran and its proxies from launching more attacks on US personnel and assets in the region, and force them to reconsider their strategy and tactics. The US could also demonstrate its resolve and commitment to its allies and partners in the region, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, and reassure them of its support and protection.
• The US strikes could also create an opportunity for dialogue and diplomacy with Iran, and pave the way for a return to the nuclear deal. The US could use the strikes as leverage and pressure on Iran to comply with its obligations and commitments under the deal, and to address other issues of concern, such as its ballistic missile program and its regional activities. The US could also offer incentives and concessions to Iran, such as easing some of the sanctions and providing humanitarian aid.

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Negative effects:

• The US strikes could provoke Iran and its proxies to retaliate with more attacks on US personnel and assets in the region, and escalate the conflict to a wider and more dangerous level. Iran could also mobilize its allies and proxies in the region, such as Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis, to target US allies and interests, such as Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, and spark a regional war.
• The US strikes could also undermine the prospects for dialogue and diplomacy with Iran, and jeopardize the chances of reviving the nuclear deal. Iran could use the strikes as an excuse and justification to accelerate its nuclear program and to enrich uranium to higher levels, and to reduce its cooperation and transparency with the international community. Iran could also reject any offers and proposals from the US, and demand more concessions and guarantees.